All readers of this blog are encouraged to submit election predictions for the Canadian Federal Election, which takes place Tuesday October 14, 2008. Simply add your predictions as a comment (or email me) - I will remove the comment and add your predictions to the main article. If you prefer that I refrain from posting your predictions until the last minute, I will oblige.
This is for glory only - and is not a money contest. Only picks submitted before the first polls close will be included.
Please pick:
1) Government Result
2) Seat Tally
3) Popular Vote
4) Provincial Winners
5) Special Bonus Questions
Scoring works as follows:
Points (which are bad) are given for results that diverge from reality. The person with the fewest accumulated points wins. Results will be posted in a followup blog entry.
1) Government Result
- receive 25 points if you get the wrong winner
- receive 15 points if you get the government type wrong (e.g. majority vs. minority)
2) Seat Tally
- receive 1 point for each seat you are off for each of the 5 main parties
3) Popular Vote
- receive 3 points for each % you are off each party's final vote count
4) Provincial Winners
- receive 10 points if you get the province winner wrong
Note: Yukon/NWT/Nunavut are grouped together as "Territories".
5) Bonus Questions
- receive 5 points if you get a bonus question wrong
a) Who wins Papineau (Justin Trudeau)?
b) Who wins Saanich-Gulf Islands?
c) Who wins Central Nova (Elizabeth May)?
d) Who wins Vancouver-Quadra?
e) Who wins Vancouver-Centre?
f) Is Alberta a Tory sweep?
2006 Predictions2006 ResultsPOOL PARTICIPANTSGilman1.
Election ResultConservative Minority2.
Seat Tally (308 Total)CON: 120,
LIB: 96,
BQ: 45,
NDP: 47,
OTH: 03.
Popular VoteCON: 32,
LIB: 29,
BQ: 15,
NDP: 20,
OTH: 44.
Provincial WinnersConservative: BC, Man, Alta, SaskLiberal: Ont, Terr, NB, NS, Nfld, PEIBQ: Que5.
Bonus Questionsa) Who wins Papineau?
LIBb) Who wins Saanich-GulfIslands?
CONc) Who wins Central Nova?
CONd) Who wins Vancouver-Quadra?
LIBe) Who wins Vancouver-Centre?
LIBf) Is Alberta a Tory sweep?
NOChamp1.
Election ResultConservative Minority2.
Seat Tally (308 Total)CON: 134,
LIB: 85,
BQ: 56,
NDP: 32,
OTH: 13.
Popular VoteCON: 35,
LIB: 26,
BQ: 10,
NDP: 19,
OTH: 104.
Provincial WinnersConservative: BC, Man, Alta, SaskLiberal: Ont, Terr, NB, NS, Nfld, PEIBQ: Que5.
Bonus Questionsa) Who wins Papineau?
LIBb) Who wins Saanich-GulfIslands?
CONc) Who wins Central Nova?
GREENd) Who wins Vancouver-Quadra?
LIBe) Who wins Vancouver-Centre?
LIBf) Is Alberta a Tory sweep?
YESBig J1.
Election ResultConservative Minority2.
Seat Tally (308 Total)CON: 134,
LIB: 90,
BQ: 49,
NDP: 34,
OTH: 13.
Popular VoteCON: 32,
LIB: 26,
BQ: 11,
NDP: 23,
OTH: 84.
Provincial WinnersConservative: BC, Man, Alta, SaskLiberal: Ont, Terr, NB, NS, Nfld, PEIBQ: Que5.
Bonus Questionsa) Who wins Papineau?
LIBb) Who wins Saanich-GulfIslands?
CONc) Who wins Central Nova?
LIBd) Who wins Vancouver-Quadra?
LIBe) Who wins Vancouver-Centre?
LIBf) Is Alberta a Tory sweep?
NOSnowy Cat1.
Election ResultConservative Minority2.
Seat Tally (308 Total)CON: 118,
LIB: 99,
BQ: 49,
NDP: 40,
OTH: 23.
Popular VoteCON: 32,
LIB: 28,
BQ: 10,
NDP: 20,
OTH: 104.
Provincial WinnersConservative: BC, Man, Alta, SaskLiberal: Ont, Terr, NB, NS, Nfld, PEIBQ: Que5.
Bonus Questionsa) Who wins Papineau?
LIBb) Who wins Saanich-GulfIslands?
CONc) Who wins Central Nova?
CONd) Who wins Vancouver-Quadra?
LIBe) Who wins Vancouver-Centre?
LIBf) Is Alberta a Tory sweep?
YESGlenn1.
Election ResultConservative Minority2.
Seat Tally (308 Total)CON: 124,
LIB: 100,
BQ: 50,
NDP: 33,
OTH: 13.
Popular VoteCON: 35,
LIB: 26,
BQ: 10,
NDP: 18,
OTH: 114.
Provincial WinnersConservative: BC, Man, Alta, SaskLiberal: Ont, Terr, NB, NS, Nfld, PEIBQ: Que5.
Bonus Questionsa) Who wins Papineau?
LIBb) Who wins Saanich-GulfIslands?
CONc) Who wins Central Nova?
CONd) Who wins Vancouver-Quadra?
LIBe) Who wins Vancouver-Centre?
LIBf) Is Alberta a Tory sweep?
YESOaf1.
Election ResultConservative Minority2.
Seat Tally (308 Total)CON: 131,
LIB: 96,
BQ: 53,
NDP: 26,
OTH: 23.
Popular VoteCON: 36,
LIB: 31,
BQ: 11,
NDP: 16,
OTH: 64.
Provincial WinnersConservative: BC, Man, Alta, SaskLiberal: Ont, Terr, NB, NS, Nfld, PEIBQ: Que5.
Bonus Questionsa) Who wins Papineau?
LIBb) Who wins Saanich-GulfIslands?
LIBc) Who wins Central Nova?
CONd) Who wins Vancouver-Quadra?
LIBe) Who wins Vancouver-Centre?
LIBf) Is Alberta a Tory sweep?
YESMum1.
Election ResultConservative Minority2.
Seat Tally (308 Total)CON: 135,
LIB: 94,
BQ: 53,
NDP: 26,
OTH: 03.
Popular VoteCON: 37,
LIB: 30,
BQ: 11,
NDP: 16,
OTH: 64.
Provincial WinnersConservative: BC, Man, Alta, SaskLiberal: Ont, NB, NS, Nfld, PEIBQ: QueNDP: Terr5.
Bonus Questionsa) Who wins Papineau?
LIBb) Who wins Saanich-GulfIslands?
LIBc) Who wins Central Nova?
LIBd) Who wins Vancouver-Quadra?
LIBe) Who wins Vancouver-Centre?
LIBf) Is Alberta a Tory sweep?
YESDad1.
Election ResultConservative Minority2.
Seat Tally (308 Total)CON: 124,
LIB: 111,
BQ: 50,
NDP: 23,
OTH: 03.
Popular VoteCON: 35,
LIB: 32,
BQ: 11,
NDP: 14,
OTH: 84.
Provincial WinnersConservative: BC, Man, Alta, SaskLiberal: Ont, NB, NS, Nfld, PEIBQ: QueNDP: Terr5.
Bonus Questionsa) Who wins Papineau?
LIBb) Who wins Saanich-GulfIslands?
LIBc) Who wins Central Nova?
LIBd) Who wins Vancouver-Quadra?
LIBe) Who wins Vancouver-Centre?
LIBf) Is Alberta a Tory sweep?
YESSteel Curtain1.
Election ResultConservative Minority2.
Seat Tally (308 Total)CON: 116,
LIB: 110,
BQ: 48,
NDP: 33,
OTH: 13.
Popular VoteCON: 32,
LIB: 29,
BQ: 10,
NDP: 19,
OTH: 104.
Provincial WinnersConservative: BC, Man, Alta, SaskLiberal: Ont, NB, NS, Nfld, PEI, TerrBQ: Que5.
Bonus Questionsa) Who wins Papineau?
LIBb) Who wins Saanich-GulfIslands?
CONc) Who wins Central Nova?
GREENd) Who wins Vancouver-Quadra?
LIBe) Who wins Vancouver-Centre?
LIBf) Is Alberta a Tory sweep?
YES